'How will this year's presidential elections in South Korea and the United States turn out?'

The Social Science Research Institute invited Allan Lichtman, a U.S. presidential election forecasting expert from American University, on June 4 to give a seminar and special lecture titled 'A Framework for Viewing Presidential Elections.'

Professor Lichtman is a presidential election forecasting expert who, using the system presented in The Keys to the White House, has accurately predicted U.S. presidential election outcomes since 1984.

At the seminar, Professor Lichtman revealed his method for predicting presidential elections and offered his forecast for this year's U.S. presidential election.

His method analyzes 13 factors concerning leading presidential candidates, including control of Congress; intra-party competition; incumbency advantage; the potential emergence of a third party; short- and long-term economic conditions; policy changes; social instability; scandals affecting the administration; foreign and military failures and successes; charisma; and the challenger's charisma.

Professor Lichtman predicted, 'A candidate of the incumbent party with fewer than six of these 13 factors judged as negative has, without a single exception, been elected president,' and said, 'Currently Obama is rated positively on nine or more factors, so Obama will be elected U.S. president this year.'

He also noted that applying the 13 factors to this year's presidential election in South Korea would be difficult because the five-year single-term system, frequently changing political parties, the division between North and South Korea, ideology, region, and generation exert strong influences.